Expected Value of Insurance Calculator

A 0.4% chance of a $300,000.00 loss gives an expected loss of $1,200.00. The $1,500.00 premium is $300.00 above that — roughly what you're paying, on average, for the certainty of not facing this loss yourself, on top of the insurer's own costs and profit. That doesn't make it a bad deal: the point of insurance is protection against the rare, catastrophic year, not a favorable bet in a typical one.